MBSB Investment Revises Malaysia's 2026 Export Growth Forecast To 8.8 Pct

KUALA LUMPUR, May 20 (Bernama) -- MBSB Investment Bank Bhd has revised its export growth forecast for Malaysia upward to 8.8 per cent for this year as compared with 4.5 per cent last year, while import growth is projected at 7.5 per cent for the year as compared with the earlier projection of 5.0 per cent.

The investment bank said the upward revisions for both exports and imports reflect price-driven gains supported by elevated commodity prices.

“For exports specifically, however, the upgrade also heavily reflects the recent surge in re-exports. Looking ahead, the sustained global technology upcycles and expanding artificial intelligence infrastructure will continue to drive strong demand for electrical and electronics (E&E) products.

“We also anticipate a potential upside boost from the front-loading of E&E shipments ahead of the US phased tariffs on semiconductor products,” MBSB Investment said in a note today.

Earlier, the Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry reported that Malaysia’s trade rose 28.6 per cent year-on-year to a record RM336.73 billion in April 2026, driven mainly by strong exports of E&E products.

The bank said that, nonetheless, Malaysia’s export trajectory remained vulnerable to external headwinds, including escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia and broader US trade protectionism.

Furthermore, it said downside risks persist as Malaysia faces scrutiny over forced labour allegations and “structural excess capacity” in manufacturing, which could trigger new retaliatory measures.

“Meanwhile, looming semiconductor-specific tariffs continue to cloud the nation’s industrial outlook.

“On the domestic front, sustained momentum in consumer and business spending will continue to anchor import growth,” it added.

-- BERNAMA