Malaysia's Automotive TIV Seen At 790,000 Units In 2026 - Kenanga IB
KUALA LUMPUR, July 17 (Bernama) -- Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd (Kenanga IB) projects the total industry volume (TIV) for the Malaysian automotive industry to reach 790,000 units in calendar year 2026 (CY2026).
This represents a modest four per cent year-on-year decline and is in line with the Malaysian Automotive Association's (MAA) forecast.
Kenanga IB said fuel prices, which have begun to ease gradually following talks towards a peace deal between the United States (US) and Iran, remain vulnerable to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties in West Asia and disruptions to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
“However, this has minimal impact on domestic vehicle sales volumes as the Malaysian market remains protected by the subsidised RON95 priced at RM1.99 per litre under the BUDI MADANI RON95 (BUDI95) programme, despite the reduced quota of 200 litres per month.
“According to the government, 90 per cent of Malaysians use less than 200 litres per month,” it said in a research note today.
The investment bank expects new replacement cycles to increasingly favour electric vehicles (EVs), whose share has increased significantly over the years to six per cent of total TIV from below one per cent five years ago.
“EVs are also expected to account for 10 per cent of TIV by 2027 as automakers ramp up local production of EVs and hybrids (including plug-in hybrid EVs), alongside a shift towards motorcycles, hinging on the potential removal of subsidies,” it said.
Meanwhile, the government's recent announcement to reduce the subsidised diesel price is expected to benefit the commercial vehicle (CV) segment, particularly the lifestyle pick-up truck sub-segment, which was significantly impacted by the implementation of targeted diesel subsidies in June 2024.
Nevertheless, the CV market share remains small, accounting for six per cent of total TIV compared with 11 per cent five years ago.
Starting July 1, 2026, the subsidised diesel price for eligible Malaysians nationwide will drop to a flat RM2.10 per litre, with the mechanism and eligibility criteria aligned with those of the BUDI MADANI programme.
-- BERNAMA