Kenanga Raises 2026 Export Growth Forecast To 28.5 Pct, Sees RM2 Trillion Mark
KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 21 (Bernama) -- Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd raised its 2026 export growth forecast to 28.5 per cent (2025: 6.6 per cent) from 19.0 per cent, with export value on track to exceed the RM2.0 trillion mark this year.
Year-to-date growth expanded to 31.2 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) (Jan-July: 29.2 per cent), reflecting continued strength in external demand through the third quarter of this year (3Q 2026).
“Sustained electrical and electronics (E&E) demand from artificial intelligence (AI)-driven technology investment and new product launches support this revision, even as we expect export growth to slow in the second half of this year (2H 2026) as favourable base effects fade,” Kenanga said in a research note today.
However, the bank highlighted that downside risks include renewed uncertainty surrounding the United States’ (US) trade policies, potentially weaker global growth amid higher energy prices and a restrictive monetary environment, ongoing geopolitical tensions, a possible electronics demand cliff post AI-driven investment cycle, and persistent commodity volatility.
For Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) outlook, Kenanga maintained its 2026 GDP growth forecast of 5.3 per cent (2025: 5.2 per cent).
“Strong external trade and expanding trade-related activities should provide support to domestic economic activity and offset lingering global headwinds.
“Continued momentum could push 2H2026 results, and full-year GDP, above forecast,” it added.
Apex Securities Bhd maintained its 2026 export growth forecast at 26.2 per cent y-o-y (2025: 6.6 per cent).
“Going forward, we remain particularly positive on the E&E sector, underpinned by structural growth in AI, electric vehicles and other related industrial segments,” it said.
Meanwhile, energy-related exports should provide additional support, as Malaysia remains a beneficiary of potential trade diversion arising from West Asia conflicts.
The robust growth in intermediate imports is also typically an indication of a strong order book and near-term strength in industrial and export activity.
“That said, exports are likely to face headwinds in the remaining months of 2026 due to an unfavourable high base in the corresponding period last year.
On downside risks, Apex said they include a renewed flare-up in West Asia tensions that could disrupt global trade flows, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding US trade policy.
“Malaysia remains vulnerable to higher tariffs, with the US Section 301 investigation into structural excess capacity and production still underway,” it added.
-- BERNAMA