Global Reliance On Imported Energy To Peak By 2034

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 15 (Bernama) -- Global reliance on imported energy is projected to peak by 2034 as energy security concerns accelerate the shift towards electrification, amid growing disruption to global fuel supplies, according to Rystad Energy. 

In the fifth edition of its flagship annual report “Global Energy Scenarios (GES) 2026”, Rystad Energy noted that Russia’s war in Ukraine and the West Asia crisis, which has severely affected flows through the Strait of Hormuz, are among the most severe tests of the energy system since the oil crises of the 1970s. 

It said both had long been considered major risks, although their actual impact on energy markets unfolded differently than anticipated.

“The system has absorbed the current crisis remarkably well so far, much of it through capacity built after the previous shock. Decades of investment, innovation and diversification created this optionality and, with ample buffers at the onset of the crisis, this has bought the system valuable time. 

“How much remains depends on how long the Strait of Hormuz stays constricted and how fast new options can materialise. The longer the conflict lasts, the harder it will affect interlinked systems like food, logistics and manufacturing,” said Rystad Energy founder and executive chairman Jarand Rystad. 

According to the report, the global energy system has so far demonstrated resilience, supported by infrastructure and capacity developed following previous energy shocks.

In 2021, Russia supplied around 36 per cent of Europe’s gas imports, while the United States supplied around six per cent. 

By 2025, Russia fell to around 7.5 per cent, while US liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplied around 21 per cent. 

“That infrastructure is now helping buffer the system, although Europe and Asia are competing for the same LNG cargoes, which risks leaving Europe short of winter stocks and Asia short of supply,” said the report. 

Rystad Energy also highlighted that the two conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia also overlap in diesel, with Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries pushing Moscow to ban diesel exports just as Hormuz has reduced West Asian supply. 

“With diesel stocks around 14 per cent below their five-year average, US diesel cracks have climbed above a record US$100 per barrel, raising costs for trucking, shipping and freight,” it said.

Since February 2026, nearly 100 countries have cut fuel taxes, paid subsidies or capped prices to shield consumers.

Another 60 have introduced demand-reduction measures and 34 have pursued structural changes. 

“Of those, 26 adopted electrification policies, 22 of them in Europe and Asia,” Rystad Energy added.

-- BERNAMA