OPR Status Quo Till End-2026 On Firmer Growth Outlook - Analysts
KUALA LUMPUR, July 10 (Bernama) -- Research houses have maintained their end-2026 forecast for Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) overnight policy rate (OPR) at 2.75 per cent, citing BNM’s constructive assessment of Malaysia’s growth outlook and expectations of contained inflation.
They also cited BNM’s expectations for 2026 growth to be firmly within its official forecast range of four to five per cent.
CGS International said the latest MPC statement points to firmer growth, supported by stronger-than-expected exports, robust electric and electronic (E&E) demand and improving global prospects.
“Comparing the latest MPC statement with the one issued on May 8, 2026, the overall policy stance remains neutral, with a more constructive view on gross domestic product (GDP) growth as concerns over supply disruptions ease and growth prospects improve.
“With growth expectations within the official forecast range and inflation contained, we see limited urgency for a policy adjustment in either direction,” it said in a note today.
CGS International said domestic demand continues to benefit from favourable labour market conditions, steady wage growth and ongoing policy support, while improving global supply chain conditions and recovering non-E&E exports should provide additional support.
Meanwhile, Public Investment Bank Bhd (PIBB) also expects the OPR to stay at 2.75 per cent till end-2026. The July statement retained a broadly neutral policy tone, but the macro assessment has turned more constructive than in May, it said.
BNM sounded more confident about Malaysia’s growth path. The latest developments point to resilient second-quarter (2Q) growth driven by sustained domestic demand and stronger-than-expected export performance, it said.
“E&E demand remains robust. Additional support is expected from a rebound in non-E&E exports, particularly petrochemicals and oil and gas production as facilities return from maintenance, alongside sustained tourist spending.
“BNM’s reference to its four per cent to five per cent growth forecast reinforces its confidence that the domestic growth buffer remains intact despite external shocks,” it added.
On inflation, PIBB said the tone remains contained rather than hawkish. BNM has acknowledged some initial pass-through from higher global cost pressures, but the impact on headline and core inflation is expected to remain contained, PIBB said.
“For now, the inflation impulse remains largely external and cost-push, with limited evidence of broad-based demand-driven pressure.
“A five-basis-point rate hike in 4Q remains a conditional tail risk. This will need evidence that cost pressures are broadening into core inflation, inflation pressures are becoming more pervasive and persistent, or policy accommodation is starting to generate financial imbalances,” it said.
Separately, Apex Securities Bhd said the policy tone has turned slightly more positive. Improving supply conditions and prices of key commodities are supporting global and domestic growth outlook, it said.
Although BNM remains comfortable with the current OPR level, it could turn more hawkish should there be signs of higher-than-expected inflation, it said.
“With the growth and inflation outlook remaining broadly intact, we expect BNM to maintain the OPR at 2.75 per cent through 2026,” it said.
-- BERNAMA