AmBank Sees Stronger 2Q GDP Growth, Raises 2026 Forecast To 4.8 Pct

KUALA LUMPUR, July 17 (Bernama) -- AmBank (M) Bhd expects Malaysia's gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q2026) to grow by 5.6 per cent, supported by private consumption fuelled by festive spending during the quarter and steady private investment

Chief economist Firdaos Rosli said as such, the bank has revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Malaysia upward to 4.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent previously, placing it at the upper end of Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) growth projection range of 4.0-5.0 per cent.

Speaking at a media briefing on '2HFY2026 Outlook: Resilient Growth, Rising Fractures' here today, he said Malaysia's growth is expected to remain underpinned by supportive fiscal measures that sustain household consumption.

He said infrastructure development, together with the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI)-driven global investment upcycle, which has strengthened electrical and electronics exports and information technology-related investments, will continue to support growth.

Firdaos also said that despite expectations of lower inflation and shrinking trade volumes during times of crisis, Malaysia had not witnessed either in the first half of 2026 (1H 2026).

"Exports are accelerating steadily, while global commercial activity remains healthy despite the war in West Asia.

"To be clear, global trade was already on an upward trajectory as major economies race for technological dominance," he added.

He said the month preceding the war in West Asia saw global imports and exports recording double-digit growth, a trend that has persisted since December 2025.

"We suspect trade will remain resilient despite the war in 2H 2026. A key driver has been the continued strength in technology-related trade, particularly semiconductors, where investment in AI infrastructure has supported cross-border demand," he said.

Citing a report, Firdaos said that the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) projects a massive 90 per cent year-on-year growth, valued at US$1.51 trillion, which will bolster global trade in 2026.

However, he also said that even with the upward revision, annual growth is still expected to ease from 5.2 per cent in 2025.

“Our forecast incorporates a moderation in 2H 2026 as the impact of elevated commodity prices gradually ripples through the global economy.

“External risks remain tilted to the downside, with uncertainties persisting despite the signing of the United States-Iran peace agreement,” he added.

-- BERNAMA