Brent Forecast Raised To US$100 Per Barrel By End-2026 -- OCBC
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 2 (Bernama) -- Brent crude oil is now forecast to reach US$100 per barrel by end-2026, up from the previous projection of US$85, while the end-2027 forecast has been raised to US$85 per barrel from US$75, OCBC Group Research said.
The research arm of Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Ltd (OCBC) said the upward revisions reflect elevated oil prices and expectations that physical supply constraints will take time to ease.
It added that export estimates vary among tracking providers as more shipments are being transported in convoys, through ship-to-ship transfers, and by vessels switching off their tracking signals.
“The direction is clear: more crude is moving. The exact volume is not. Meanwhile, the market has drawn heavily on its shock absorbers,” OCBC Research said in a note today.
Gold price forecasts revised downwards
OCBC Research has lowered its gold price forecasts to US$4,250 per ounce by end-2026 and US$4,710 per ounce by end-2027.
It remains cautious on the precious metal as prices continue to search for a floor. The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) divided decision to keep interest rates unchanged in October, coupled with uncertainty over a possible rate hike in December, is likely to keep market sentiment defensive.
OCBC Research said risks to gold prices include persistently elevated oil prices, higher real yields and renewed cross-asset deleveraging.
However, it expects inflationary pressures to moderate from the second half of 2027, allowing the Fed to resume monetary easing and real yields to decline.
“These developments, alongside continued official-sector demand and fiscal concerns, should support a gradual recovery,” it said.
CPO prices expected to remain range-bound
For Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO), OCBC Research expects prices to remain range-bound in the near term, as elevated domestic inventories weigh on the market.
However, tighter supply conditions and firm biodiesel demand could provide support into 2027.
“External demand has improved following India's September edible oil import duty cuts, with refiners reportedly purchasing more than 200,000 tonnes of CPO within a week ahead of Deepavali in November,” it added.
The research arm said stronger exports could slow inventory accumulation, although the existing stock overhang may take time to clear, particularly if festive restocking demand fades.
-- BERNAMA